Yesterday I offered some thoughts on the value of seeing the end point, in terms of enabling us to cope and to maintain peace.
Writing on the 1st of June, 2020, I realised that people across the world suffering from the direct and indirect effects of the COVID19 pandemic will be asking themselves when it will end.
This is complicated by the fact that there are a series of end points in the pipeline, and some may occur twice or more.
When will lockdown end? When will schools reopen? When will a vaccine be found, and after that, how long will it be before I can get one?
It seems likely that the initiative to reopen that is taking place in large parts of Europe, the United States, and elsewhere represents a false endpoint for many COVID19-related restrictions. Case rates will probably rise again, precipitating the reintroduction of restrictions – though depending on the sophistication of the tracking, these restrictions may be more localised.
As humans, we love linear progression. I start at A and progress to B. The next step will be C. There’s no question of returning to A again!
We see this on a macro-level, with expectations about inexorable economic growth, and on a micro-level, with things like individual career progression.
But I digress.
Non-linear evolution can wait for another day.
For now, let us return to the subject of COVID19 end points, starting with what we know:
- the most important/significant end point is the cessation of disease transmission, due to herd immunity (either through naturally-developed herd immunity, or through enough people receiving an efficacious vaccine). For people in high income countries who may have swifter access to the vaccine, this could well happen in the next 12 months.
- before infections are stopped, some of the restrictions in place will be relaxed. Indeed, in some places many restrictions are being relaxed already. The wisdom of the timing is always going to be debatable, given that the costs and benefits are multifarious, and we’re not able to define many of them with much precision. For example: what are the costs and benefits of children returning to school in six weeks’ time, rather than two weeks’ time? Thus, the end points for lifting of restrictions are not fully knowable, except that they will come either at the same time or sooner than the end of disease transmission. And we won’t always agree with the timing. Individually and collectively, we need to find ways to cope with the uncertainty.
To address the subject of coping with uncertainty, let’s examine Maslow’s hierarchy of needs: physiological (related to the body), safety, love & belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation.
It’s not easy to generalise between countries about how the fulfilment of these needs has been affected by the COVID19 pandemic. In higher income countries, more people can rely on their own wealth or on state institutions acting as safety nets to provide food, shelter, and safety than in lower income countries. But there are exceptions.
Friends of mine often remark that COVID19 seems to polarise people, bringing out the best in some and the worst in others. As some display altruism (hundreds of thousands of National Health Service volunteers), others turn inwards out of self-preservation (toilet paper hoarders). I would encourage you to reflect on how COVID19 is affecting your needs, and those of others.
Coping with the uncertainty could involve identifying others who have been more badly affected, and meeting their needs. There are so many ways to do this: from donating to organisations providing food, shelter and safety to calling up isolated friends and relatives (love & belonging).
A brief note on current events in the United States (though that will undoubtedly lead to leaving key things unsaid). I don’t feel at all qualified to offer reflections or advice on this, but want to acknowledge the gravity of these events, seeing them as symptomatic of racism that has shaped and continues to shape our trajectory as a human race, to the benefit of some and to the detriment of others.
One way of viewing violent reactions to systemic racism would be through the lens that we have explored over the past couple of days. My impression is that there’s a sense of despair among people who see no end point to fear, oppression, and injustice. How is it possible to for peace to prevail in a situation like that?
The fact that lived experience has become so polarised is arguably what allows some people to view current events as shocking and others to view them as inevitable. Listening and reading, developing empathy, and standing in solidarity are good places to start, when seeking to engage in a helpful way.